Box- Jenkins Methodology Used in Predict The Numbers of Patients with Diabetes in DiyalaProvince
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61841/tv8cwa97Keywords:
Stationary, Partial autocorrelation Function PACF, Estimation, ForecastingAbstract
The sugar disease had been known since ancient times, where a Greek physician, Aritaos, observed in early 200 BC that some patients developed symptoms of frequent urination and extreme thirst. This phenomenon has been named "policyholders" or "Aldiabats," which is a Latin word that means going to the bathroom chair." have discovered the scientists Joseph von Mereynj Oscar Menkoski In 1889, the role of the pancreas in diabetes was discovered when they removed the pancreas completely from dogs, where they showed signs and symptoms of diabetes that led to their deaths after a brief period, and in 1910, the world discovered that Sir Edward Albert Scheffer said diabetic patients suffer a shortage of a chemical produced by the pancreas called insulin. The diabetes at present from more diseases prevalent in the entire world advanced him and developed as the number of people infected with the disease increased, and because of the seriousness of this disease and how to predict the numbers of infected and build a standard form to him, it is here that the idea of this research came, which was intended to use one of the advanced methods of time series and of methodology Box-Jenkins analysis to predict the numbers of people with diabetes in Diyala province through the examination of a number of models and choose the best model among these models to represent monthly from 2009-2012 series and thus to predict until the end of 2014.
Downloads
References
1- Ahmed, Ben Ahmed, “Standard Modeling of National Electricity Consumption in Algeria during the Period
(1988: 10-03-2007)” The People's Democratic Republic of Algeria - Ministry of Higher Education and
Scientific Research - University of Algeria - Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management Sciences, a note
presented within Requirements for obtaining a Master’s Degree in Economic Sciences - Quantitative
Economics Branch.
2- Al-Hamid, Muhammad bin Saad, “Diabetes, its causes, complications and treatment” Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia - King Abdulaziz City for Science and Development 2008
3- Al-Jubouri, Abeer Hassan Ali, “Predicting Iraqi Oil Prices for the Year 2010 using Time Series,” University
of Babylon Journal, Human Sciences, Volume 18, Issue 1, 2010
4- Al-Sous, Muhammad Fayek Mahmoud, “The Use of ARFIMA Models in Predicting the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) Indicators” Al-Azhar University - Gaza, Deanship of Postgraduate Studies, Faculty of
Economics and Administrative Sciences, Master of Statistics Program, Master Thesis in Statistics, 2014.
5- Al-Ghannam, A.M. Hamad bin Abdullah, “Time series analysis of the stock price index in the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia using the Box-Jenkins methodology, Saudi Arabia-Riyadh-King Saud University, King
Abdulaziz University Journal, Economics and Management, Volume 17, Issue 2, 2003.
6- "The National Reference for Diabetes Education," Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Ministry of Health - Assistant
Agency for Preventive Medicine - General Administration of Non-Communicable Diseases - First Edition
2011.
7- Insaf, Alaa Hussein Omran, “Using the ARIMA Model to Predict the Number of Tuberculosis Cases in Wasit
Governorate” Al-Technical Magazine - Volume Twenty Seven - Issue Five, 2014
8- Iman, Tali Muammar, “An Analytical Standard Study of Household Electricity Consumption - Case Study of
Sonelgaz Unit of Bouira - During the period 2008, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific
Research - Oulhaj University—Bouira—Faculty of Economic, Commercial and Management
Sciences, 2014
9- Berry, Dr. Adnan Majed Abdel-Rahman, “Methods of Statistical Prediction - Part One” King Saud
University, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, 2002.
9- Report on High Blood Pressure, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, 2007
10-—Rahim, Ibrahim “A Standard Study of Family Demand for Electricity in Algeria for the Period 1969-2008”
Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research - University of Ouargla - Algeria - Faculty of
Economic, Business and Management Sciences - Department of Economic Sciences, Memorandum
submitted for completing the requirements of the Master’s degree in Economic Sciences in 2012.
11-—Rockaby, Dr. Mukhlis Abdullah, the servant, Prof. Muhammad “Using the Box-Jenkins Methodology in
Predicting the Number of Umrah Performers from Abroad Per Month” Umm Al-Qura University - The
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Institute for Hajj and Umrah Research.
12- Rouihah, Dr. Amin, "Diabetes, its causes, and its symptoms," Dar Al-Qalam - Beirut - Lebanon, 1973.
13- Sharawi, Dr. Samir Mustafa, “Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis,” Kingdom of Saudi Arabia -
King Abdulaziz University - College of Science - Scientific Publishing Center, 2005.
14-—Attia, Abd al-Qadir Muhammad Abd al-Qadir, “The Hadith in Econometrics between Theory and Practice,”
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Makkah Al-Mukarramah, 2004
15-—Alloush, M.D., Jaafar Baqer Mahmoud, Muhammad, and Noor Hazem “Measuring risks and forecasting the
indexes of the Iraq Stock Exchange using the Box-Jenkins methodology” Wasit Journal for the Humanities,
Volume 11, Issue 30, 2015.
16- Fatih, Luqi, “The Quality of SARIMA Mixed Seasonal Time Series Models in Sales Forecasting - A Case
Study of the Jadei Mills Corporation in the People's Democratic Republic of Algeria - Ministry of Higher
Education and Scientific Research - Mohamed Khidir University - Biskra - Faculty of Economic, Business and Management Sciences - Department of Sciences Management—dissertation submitted as part of the
requirements for a master's degree in management science, 2014.
17- College of Pharmacy, "an educational brochure on high blood pressure," Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Ministry
of Higher Education and Scientific Research, University of Hail.
18-—Muhammad, Ibrahim Humaidan Ahmed, “Application of integrated self-regression models and moving
averages to crude oil production in Sudan for the period (2005-2012)” Sudan - Gezira University, part of the
requirements for obtaining a master's degree in statistics, 2013
19- Makhramash, Abla “Estimating a Model for Forecasting Sales Using Time Series - Box Models - Jenkins -
Case Study of the National Electricity and Gas Company in Ouargla Region” University of QasdiMurbah -
Ouargla - College of Law and Economic Sciences, a note submitted for a master’s degree in economic
sciences, 2006
20-—World Health Organization, "Global Briefing Note on High Blood Pressure" 2013
21 - Naqar, Dr. Othman. Al-Awwad, Dr. Munther, “The Box-Jenkins Methodology in Time Series Analysis and
Prediction - An Applied Study on the Number of First Grade Students of Basic Education in Syria”
Damascus University Journal of Economic and Legal Sciences - Volume 27 - Third Issue - 2011.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 AUTHOR
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation .
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.
