An Empirical Study on Influence of Specific Bank's Variable and Macroeconomics on Bank's Default Risk: The Case of Foreign Exchange Banks in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61841/0enwdx56Keywords:
Risk management, Default risk, Banking sustainabilityAbstract
Purpose: Risk management is an integral part of a sustainable foreign exchange bank in Indonesia. The purpose of this study was to conduct an empirical investigation and to determine the risk for sustainable management of foreign exchange banks in Indonesia, especially default risk. Design/methodology/approach: The method used in this article is using the logit model. Goodness of fit test used to examine fit model or otherwise. Likelihood, Cox & Snell R Square, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to verify the model. The Wald statistic is used to examine the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Findings: The findings showed that risk on foreign exchange banks in Indonesia is influenced by specific and macroeconomic variables that affect the performance of foreign exchange banks. Non-performing loans, credit quality, capital requirements, interest rates, and inflation have an effect on the occurrence of default risk in foreign exchange banks in Indonesia. Research limitation/implications: This research uses secondary data from foreign exchange banking statistics for 68 months from July 2011 to February 2017 in Indonesia. Practical implications: This study contributes policy to mitigate risk bank (default risk) that can affect the performance of foreign exchange banks in the challenge of being able to compete on a regional and international scale. Originality/value: In this study, independent variables are divided into the specific bank's variables (internal variables) and macroeconomics. The internal variables are non-performing loans, capital requirements, credit quality, and bank size. Interest rate and inflation are chosen as macroeconomic variables.
Downloads
References
[1] Ahmad, N. H. & Ariff, M. (2007). Multi-Country Study of Bank Credit Risk Determinants. International Journal of Banking and Finance, 5(1), 6.
[2] Allen, D. E. & Powell, R. (2012). The Fluctuating Default Risk of Australian Banks. Australian Journal of Management, 37(2), 297-325.
[3] Altman, E., Resti, A., & Sironi, A. (2004). Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence. Economic Notes, 33(2), 183-208.
[4] Altunbas, Y., Carbo, S., Gardener, E. P., & Molyneux, P. (2007). Examining the Relationships Between Capital, Risk, and Efficiency in European Banking. European Financial Management, 13(1), 49-70.
[5] Altunbas, Y., Liu, M. H., Molyneux, P., & Seth, R. (2000). Efficiency and Risk in Japanese Banking. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), 1605-1628.
[6] Bank Indonesia. (2009). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2008. Direktorat Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter. Bank Indonesia. http://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporantahunan/perekonomian/Pages/lpi_2008.aspx
[7] Bank Indonesia. Sejarah Bank Indonesia:Perbankan. Unit Khusus Museum Bank Indonesia. http://www.bi.go.id/id/tentang-bi/museum/sejarah-bi/bi/Pages/sejarahbi_3a.aspx
[8] Bennett, R. L., Güntay, L., & Unal, H. (2015). Inside Debt, Bank Default Risk, and Performance During the Crisis. Journal of Financial Intermediation. Elsevier
[9] Castro, V. (2013). Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Risk in the Banking System: The Case of the GIPSI. Economic Modelling, 31, 672-683.
[10] Cuadra, G., Sanchez, J. M., & Sapriza, H. (2010). Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets. Review of Economic Dynamics, 13(2), 452-469.
[11] Dermine, J., & Neto De Carvalho, C. (2005). How to Measure Recoveries and Provisions on Bank Lending: Methodology and Empirical Evidence. Recovery Risk: The Next Challenge in Credit Risk Management. Risk Books, 101-119.
[12] Engida, A. M., Faika, S., Nguyen-Thi, B. T., & Ju, Y. H. (2015). Analysis of major antioxidants from extracts of Myrmecodia pendans by UV/visible spectrophotometer, liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry, and high-performance liquid chromatography/UV techniques. Journal of Food and Drug Analysis, 23(2), 303-309.
[13] Fadare, S. O. (2011). Banking Crisis and Financial Stability in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 63(3), 1234-1256.
[14] Fiordelisi, F., & Marques-Ibanez, D. (2013). Is Bank Default Risk Systematic? Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(6), 2000-2010.
[15] Fiordelisi, F., Marques-Ibanez, D., & Molyneux, P. (2011). Efficiency and Risk in European Banking. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(5), 1315-1326.
[16] Fukuda, S. I., Kasuya, M., & Akashi, K. (2008). Impaired Bank Health and Default Risk (Forthcoming in "Pacific-Basin Finance Journal" (No. CARF-F-122). Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
[17] Gordy, M. B. (2000). A Comparative Anatomy of Credit Risk Models. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(1-2), 119-149.
[18] Hogan, T. L. (2015). Capital and risk in commercial banking: A comparison of capital and risk-based capital ratios. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 57, 32-45.
[19] Ikatan Banking Indonesia. (2014). Manajemen Kesehatan Bank Berbasis Risiko. PT Gramedia Pustaka Utama, 23.
[20] Kithinji, A. M. (2010). Credit Risk Management and Profitability of Commercial Banks in Kenya.
[21] Koch, T.W., MacDonald, S.S. (2000), Bank Management, The Dryden Press/Harcourt College Publishers, Hinsdale, IL/Orlando, FL.
[22] Kolapo, T. F., Ayeni, R. K., & Oke, M. O. (2012). Credit Risk and Commercial Bank Performance in Nigeria: A Panel Model Approach. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 2(2), 31.
[23] Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A. & Mamatzakis, E. (2009). Performance and Merton-Type Default Risk of Listed Banks in the EU: A Panel VAR Approach. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(11), 2050-2061.
[24] Laximikantham, N. M. D. (2015). Assessment of Banks Liquidity: Empirical Evidence on Ethiopian Commercial Banks. Assessment, 5(21).
[25] Mingo, J. J. (2000). Policy Implications of the Federal Reserve Study of Credit Risk Models at Major US Banking Institutions. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(1-2), 15-33.
[26] Podpiera, J. & Ötker, M. I. (2010). The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk For European Large Complex Financial Institutions (No. 10-153). International Monetary Fund.
[27] PriceWaterhouse (2017), "Weathering the Rise in Credit Risk. What's next for banks in Indonesia?" Indonesia Banking Survey 2017.
[28] Puspitasari, D. M., Setiadi, N. J., & Hasrantih, M. (2012). Islamic Bank Preparation Toward Go Public. International Conference on Business, Entrepreneurship, and Management 2012, San Beda College.
[29] Puspitasari, D. M. (2015). Analisis Fenomena Undisbursed Loan. Jurnal Bisnis, Manajemen dan Ekonomi, Fakultas Bisnis dan Manajemen, Universitas Widyatama, Volume 14 Nomor 1. (http://repository.widyatama.ac.id/xmlui/handle/123456789/7943 )
[30] Puspitasari, D.M., & Setiadi, N.J. (2016). The Role of Islamic Banking System as the Milestone Towards Indonesian Creative Economy Development. Indian Journal of Arts 6 (17), 16-33. (Print ISSN: 2320-6659.) Online ISSN: 2320-687X). (Http://Www.Indianjournals.Com/Ijor.Aspx?Target=Ijor:Ija3&Volume=6&Issue=17&Article=002)
[31] Puspitasari, D.M., Setiadi, N.J., & Rizkiyanti, N. (2015). Implementation of The Indonesian Banking Architecture As A Blueprint Of The Direction And Order Of The National Banking System: Empirical Study Of Indonesian Commercial Banking. Journal The WINNERS, 16 (1), 6-14. (ISSN: 1412-1212). (Http://ResearchDashboard.Binus.Ac.Id/Uploads/Paper/Document/Publication/Journal/The%20Winners/Vol.%2016%20N
o.%201%20Maret%202015/02_ED_WIDYATAMA_Devy%20.Pdf).
[32] Saudi, M.H.M., Sinaga, O., & Rospinoedji, D., The role of tax education in supply chain management: A case of Indonesian supply chain companies, Polish Journal of Management Studies 18(2):304-319, December 2018.
[33] Suhartono, S. (2013). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of loan loss provisioning in Indonesia. Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura, 15(3), 359-372.
[34] Takayasu, K., and Yosie, Y. (2000). Non-Performing Loan Issue Crucial to Asia’s
[35] Vazquez, F., Tabak, B. M., & Souto, M. (2012). A Macro Stress Test Model of Credit Risk for the Brazilian Banking Sector. Journal of Financial Stability, 8(2), 69-83.
[36] Waemustafa, W. & Sukri, S. (2015). Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Dynamic Determinants of Credit Risk in Islamic Banks and Conventional Banks. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 476-481.
[37] Raja Gopal B., M.L.N., Madhavi, N., Radhakrishna Murti, P.S. Kinetic studies of oxidation of glycerol, 1, 2-propane diol, by hexavalent chromium in aqueous acetic acid-perchloric acid media (2018) International Journal of Pharmaceutical Research, 10 (3), pp. 291-299. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85049622213&partnerID=40&md5=d0e420c016e64cf5134d5007534d43ab
[38] Raymond r. Tjandrawinata (2016) dietary polyamines for modulation of the aging process in the geriatric population. Journal of Critical Reviews, 3 (3), 27-30.
[39] Santosh Nemichand Kale, Sharada Laxman Deore. "Emulsion Micro Emulsion and Nano Emulsion: A Review." Systematic Reviews in Pharmacy 8.1 (2017), 39-47. Print. doi:10.5530/srp.2017.1.8
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 AUTHOR
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation .
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.