A Study on the Determinats of Credit Risk in Malaysian Banking System for the Period 1996 to 2017

Authors

  • Wong Kar Yi Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation, Malaysia Author
  • Megat Abdullah Bin Megat Mahmud Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation, Malaysia Author
  • Thirunavukkarasu A/L Suppiah Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation, Malaysia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61841/navvbk89

Keywords:

Credit Risk, ARDL, Commercial Banks

Abstract

Given the rising bankruptcy cases in Malaysia, the significance of credit risk management acquires more awareness from the society and banking industry, resulting in the establishment of countless research papers related to the issue of credit risk management. Nevertheless, the factors that bring an impact on the credit risk in banks are less researched and analyzed. Therefore, this study seeks to examine the determinants of credit risk in Malaysian banking system for the period 1996 to 2017. The selected variables are gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate, inflation rate, interest rate and management efficiency. This study applies autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The sampling frame consists of 26 Malaysian commercial banks. The research findings show that all the variables are manifested to have a significant relationship with the credit risks in Malaysian banking system. These research findings enable the practitioners to solve the issue of credit risks more productively. Bank officers could also implement a more fruitful credit risk management system after perceiving the causes of escalating credit risk in banking industry. 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

1. Aburime, T. (2008) Determinants of Bank Profitability: Company-Level Evidence from Nigeria, pp. 1–31.

2. Ahmad, F. and Bashir, T. (2013) Explanatory power of macroeconomic as determinants of nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan, World Applied Sciences Journal, 22(2), pp. 243–255.

3. Akinkoye Ebenezer, Moses Peter, S. K. (2015) Dynamic interaction between inflation and credit Rationing: the case of Nigeria, International Journal of Business and Economic Development, 3(2), pp. 39–46.

4. Aliaga-Díaz, R. and Olivero, M. P. (2011) The cyclicality of price-cost margins in banking: An empirical analysis of its determinants, Economic Inquiry, 49(1), pp. 26–46. doi: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00327.x.

5. Angeloni, I. and Faia, E. (2010) A tale of two policies: Prudential regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks, pp. 1–44. Available at: http://scholar.google.com/scholarhl=en&btnG=Search&q=intitle:A+Tale+of+Two+Policies+:+Prudential+Regulation+and+Monetary+Policy+with+Fragile+Banks#0.

6. Anna Pestova, M. M. (2012) Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of credit risk: evidence from Russia, Banking in Emerging Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, pp. 1–21.

7. Apurv, G. and Gaurav, P. (2008) Asset-liability mismatch may hurt banks’ profits, The Economic Times, 7 November, p. 1.

8. Arewa, Ajibola, Nwachukwu, Uche and Owoputi, J. A. (2013) Bank Credit Risk and Interest Rate Volatility - Granger Causality vs VAR-GARCH Approach, International Journal of Business and Management Review, 1(2), pp. 26–34.

9. Aver, B. (2008) An Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Factors of the Slovenian Banking System, Managing Global Transitions, 6(3), pp. 317–334.

10. Azrul Abdullah, W. W. (2017) Mode of Islamic Bank Financing: Does Effectiveness of Shariah Supervisory Board Matter?, Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 9(37), pp. 458–465.

11. Badar, M., Javid, A. Y. and Zulfiquar, S. (2013) Impact of Macro economic forces on Nonperforming loans an empirical study of commercial banks in Pakistan, Elixir Marketing Mgmt, 56(A), pp. 13807–13814.

12. Bai, H. (2015) Unemployment and Credit Risk, Job Market Paper, pp. 1–51.

13. Bohachova, O. (2008) The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Risks in the Banking Sector: A CrossCountry Empirical Assessment, IAW-Diskussionspapiere Discussion Paper, (44), pp. 1–36.

14. Bruggink, B. (2010) Basel III. Netherlands: Rabobank Nederland Group Risk Management, pp. 1–14.

15. Bucur, I. A. and Dragomirescu, S. E. (2014) The Influence of Macroeconomic Conditions on Credit Risk: Case of Romanian Banking System, Studies and Scientific Researches, 19(19), pp. 84–95. Available at: http://sceco.ub.ro/index.php/SCECO/article/view/250/230%5Cnhttp://sceco.ub.ro/index.php/SCECO/article/view/250.

16. Carling, Kenneth; Jacobson, Tor; Lindé, Jesper; Roszbach, K. W. (2002) Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy, SverigesRiksbank Working Paper Series, (142), pp. 1–51.

17. Castro, V. (2013) Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: the case of the GIPSI, (12), pp. 1–38.

18. Chen, R.-R., Cheng, X. and Wu, L. (2011) Dynamic Interactions Between Interest-Rate and Credit Risk: Theory and Evidence on the Credit Default Swap Term Structure, Review of Finance Advance Access, 17(1), pp. 403–441. doi: 10.1093/rof/rfr032.

19. Chen, S. and Kang, J. S. (2018) Credit Booms — Is China Different? International Monetary Fund.

20. Ćurak, M. et al. (2013) Determinants of non-performing loans – evidence from Southeastern European banking systems, Banks and Bank System, 8(1), pp. 45–53.

21. Damankah, B. S., Abor, J. Y. and Charles, K. D. (2014) The Determinants of Credit Risk in the Banking Industry of Ghana, Journal of Economics and International Finance, 6(7), pp. 137–147. doi: 10.5897/JEIF2014.0588.

22. Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Huizinga, H. (1999) Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence, World Bank Economic Review, 13(2), pp. 379–408.

23. Ding, Y. and Sickles, R. C. (2018) Capital and Risk Dynamics: Evidence from Commercial Banking, Working Papers. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net.

24. Djiogap, F. and Ngomsi, A. (2012) Determinants of Bank Long-Term Lending Behavior in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), Review of Economics & Finance, 2, pp. 107–114.

25. Duca, J. V. and McLaughlin, M. M. (1990) Developing Bank-Specific Macroeconomic Indices to Assess Changes in Lending Standards and Bank Credit Availability, Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), March, pp. 1–10.

26. Ekanayake, E. M. N. N. and Azeez, A. A. (2015) Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Licensed Commercial Banks: Evidence from Sri Lanka, Asian Economic and Financial Review, 5(6), pp. 868–882. doi: 10.18488/journal.aefr/2015.5.6/102.6.868.882.

27. Espinoza, R. A. and Prasad, A. (2010) Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and Their Macroeconomic Effects, International Monetary Fund, pp. 1–32.

28. Fiordelisi, F., Marques-Ibanez, D. and Molyneux, P. (2010) Efficiency and Risk in European Banking, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 1211. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1669228.

29. Fonseca, A. R. and Gonzalez, F. (2008) Cross-Country Determinants of Bank Income Smoothing by Managing Loan-Loss Provisions, Journal of Banking and Finance, 32(2), pp. 217–228. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.02.012.

30. Fosu, S., Ntim, C. G. and Coffie, W. (2016) Bank Lending, Macroeconomic Conditions and Non-Performing Loans in African Banking, Global Finance Journal, 30, pp. 81–104. doi: 10.1016/j.gfj.2015.11.004.

31. Ghosh, A. (2017) Sector-Specific Nonperforming Loans and Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Emerging Markets Review, 30, pp. 70–84.

32. Godlewski, C. J. (2005) Bank Capital and Credit Risk Taking in Emerging Market Economies, Journal of Banking Regulation, 6(2), pp. 128–145. doi: 10.1057/palgrave.jbr.2340180.

33. Gupta, P. and Singh, B. (2014) Macro Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study, Journal of Banking & Finance, 38(2), pp. 31–39.

34. Hansen, J. A. and Tarp, F. (2001) Aid and Growth Regressions, Journal of Development Economics, 64(2), pp. 547–570.

35. Heffernan, S. (2005) Modern Banking. John Wiley & Sons.

36. Ho, C. and Saunders, A. (1981) The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: Theory and Empirical Evidence, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 16(4), pp. 581–600.

37. Hou, Y. (2007) The Non-performing Loans: Some Bank-level Evidence, Research Paper.

38. Iannotta, G., Nocera, G. and Sironi, A. (2007) Ownership Structure, Risk and Performance in the European Banking Industry, Journal of Banking & Finance, 31(7), pp. 2127–2149.

39. Imran, K. and Nishat, M. (2013) Determinants of Bank Credit in Pakistan: A Supply Side Approach, Economic Modelling, 35, pp. 384–390. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.07.022.

40. Jakubik, P. (2007) Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk, Czech National Bank Working Paper, (15).

41. Jiménez, G. and Saurina, J. (2006) Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation, International Journal of Central Banking, 2(2), pp. 65–98.

42. Kalirai, H. and Scheicher, M. (2002) Macroeconomic Stress Testing: Preliminary Evidence for Austria, Financial Stability Report, (3), pp. 58–74.

43. Keeton, W. R. and Morris, C. S. (1987) Why Do Banks’ Loan Losses Differ? Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 72(5), pp. 3–21.

44. Khemraj, T. and Pasha, S. (2009) The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Econometric Case Study of Guyana, MPRA Paper, (53128). Available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53128/.

45. Klein, N. (2013) Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance, IMF Working Paper, WP/13/72.

46. Kwan, S. H. and Eisenbeis, R. A. (1997) Bank Risk, Capitalization, and Operating Efficiency, Journal of Financial Services Research, 12(2–3), pp. 117–131.

47. Louzis, D. P., Vouldis, A. T. and Metaxas, V. L. (2012) Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Determinants of Non-performing Loans in Greece: A Comparative Study of Mortgage, Business and Consumer Loan Portfolios, Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(4), pp. 1012–1027. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.012.

48. Makri, V., Tsagkanos, A. and Bellas, A. (2014) Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone, Panoeconomicus, 61(2), pp. 193–206. doi: 10.2298/PAN1402193M.

49. Messai, A. S. and Jouini, F. (2013) Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loans, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), pp. 852–860.

50. Nkusu, M. (2011) Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/161.

51. Ozili, P. K. (2019) Non-Performing Loans and Financial Development: New Evidence, The Journal of Risk Finance, 20(1), pp. 59–81. doi: 10.1108/JRF-07-2018-0102.

52. Podpiera, J. and Weill, L. (2008) Bad Luck or Bad Management? Emerging Banking Market Experience, Journal of Financial Stability, 4(2), pp. 135–148. doi: 10.1016/j.jfs.2006.11.002.

53. Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. (1998) Financial Dependence and Growth, The American Economic Review, 88(3), pp. 559–586.

54. Salas, V. and Saurina, J. (2002) Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks, Journal of Financial Services Research, 22(3), pp. 203–224. doi: 10.1023/A:1019781109676.

55. Schinasi, G. J. (2004) Defining Financial Stability, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/187.

56. Škarica, B. (2014) Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Central and Eastern European Countries, Financial Theory and Practice, 38(1), pp. 37–59. doi: 10.3326/fintp.38.1.2.

57. Soininen, T., Westman, H. and Suominen, M. (2019) Bank Lending and Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from the Euro Area, Journal of Banking & Finance, 105, pp. 42–57. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.05.010.

58. Sorgić, M., Bulajić, M. and Kovačević, T. (2019) Impact of Macro and Microeconomic Factors on the Non-Performing Loan Ratio, Ekonomski Horizonti, 21(3), pp. 215–228. doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1903215S.

59. Zeng, S. (2012) Bank Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): A Dynamic Model and Analysis in China, Modern Economy, 3(1), pp. 100–110. doi: 10.4236/me.2012.31014.

60. Zhang, J., Hu, S. and Ji, H. (2016) Macroprudential Regulation and Non-Performing Loans: A Panel Threshold Model, China Economic Review, 41, pp. 249–267. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2016.09.003.

Downloads

Published

30.04.2020

How to Cite

Kar Yi, W., Abdullah Bin Megat Mahmud, M., & A/L Suppiah, T. (2020). A Study on the Determinats of Credit Risk in Malaysian Banking System for the Period 1996 to 2017. International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, 24(2), 1012-1034. https://doi.org/10.61841/navvbk89