Developing Life Tables for Mauritian Population Using Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61841/tgfh3741Keywords:
Lee-Carter model, actuarial perspective, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)Abstract
Appropriate life tables, also known as mortality tables, are highly important for pricing and reserving in insurance and pension industries. For the past few decades, remarkable improvements in life expectancies have been perceived which have further driven significant declines in mortality. From an actuarial perspective, the unremitting decrease in mortality rates has an impending effect on social security systems as well as on life insurance policies and pension plans. The main objective of this research is to develop unabridged life tables for the Mauritian population using the projected death rates from the Lee-Carter model. The empirical mortality dataset of Mauritian population from 1984 to 2016 are considered. The index level of mortality for each gender, shape and the sensitivity coefficients for the ages from 0 to 85 are obtained using Lee-Carter model. The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is used to forecast the general mortality index for the time period from 2017 to 2036.
Downloads
References
1. Martial (2016), Mortality Statistics. [online]
2. WHO (2016), World Health Organization [online]
3. Martial and Boolaky (2016), Population and Vital Statistics Jan-Jun 2017. [online]
4. Virginia (2016), An Alternative Visualization of the Demographic Transition Model. Journal of Geography.
[online] 10(3), P. 23-30
5. Dudley (2010), Demographic Transition Theory. Population Studies. [online] 50(3), pp.361-387
6. Macionis (2015), Population Growth in Mauritius. [online]
7. Arnold (2010), Fitting and Forecasting Mortality Rates for Nordic Countries Using the Lee-Carter method.
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. [online] 38(1), P.1-20
8. Makeham, W. (1860). On the Law of Mortality and the Construction of Annuity Tables. The Assurance
Magazine and Journal of the Institute of Actuaries [online] 8(6), pp.301-310.
9. Brouhns, N., Denuit, M. and Vermunt, J. (2002). A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the
construction of projected lifetables. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics [online] 31(3), pp.373-393.
10. Czado, C., Delwarde, A. and Denuit, M. (2005). Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear mortality projections.
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics [online] 36(3), pp.260-284.
11. Kossi and Shapiro (2006), Modelling and Forecasting the Time-Series of U.S Mortality. Journal of American
Statistical Association [online] 87(419), P.673
12. Lee and Carter (1992), Modelling and forecasting U.S mortality. Journal of the American Statistical
Association. [online] 87(14), pp. 659-675
13. Lee and Miller (2001), Extensions to Lee-Carter method. [online]
14. Renshaw-Haberman (2006), Lee-Carter Mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement. Insurance:
Mathematics and Economics [online] 33(2), P 255-272
15. Cairns et al (2006), Longevity risk and Annuity Pricing with the Lee-Carter Model. [online]
16. Booth (2008), Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Methods. Journal of actuaries. [online]
2(14), P.34-56
17. Wasana (2014), Modelling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan Journal of Applied Statistics.
[online] 15(3), pp.60-79
18. Rossa, A. (2011), Future life-tables based on the Lee-Carter methodology and their application to calculating
the pension annuities. Journal of Economics [online] 2(13), pp.10-15.
19. Rob (2013), Prospective Life Tables. [online]
20. Miklós, A. (2014), Forecasting and simulating mortality tables. Mathematical and Computer Modelling
[online] 49(3-4), pp.805-813.
21. Russolillo, M. (2014), The Future Human Lifespan: A Study on Italian Population. Applied Mathematics
[online] 5(11), pp.1641-1650.
22. Shair, S., Rosmizan, M., Ting, M. and Zaini, M. (2019), Projected Malaysian Lifetable: Evaluations of The
Lee-Carter and Poisson Log-Bilinear Models. International Journal of Modern Trends in Social Sciences
[online] 1(4), pp.60-72.
23. Marie (2010), Fitting and Forecasting Mortality Rates for Nordic Countries Using the Lee-Carter method.
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. [online] 38(1), P.1-20
24. Sulaiman and Rukayya (2017), A Review of Life Table Construction. Biometrics & Biostatistics International
Journal. [online] 5(3), P.21-35
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 AUTHOR
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation .
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.
